Sudan is a global threat for 2013: Report

Foreign Policy File

“Every year, around the world, old conflicts worsen, new ones emerge and, occasionally, some situations improve. There is no shortage of storm clouds looming over 2013. Once again, hotspots old and new will present a challenge to the security of people across the globe. There is, of course, an arbitrariness to most lists -- and this list of crises to watch out for in 2013 is no different. One person's priority might well be another's sideshow, one analyst's early warning cry is another's fear-mongering”.

The above quotation is an introduction for a new report by Louise Arbour, published by Foreign Policy Magazine (FP) last week on the international conflicts, entitled (10 Conflicts to Watch in 2013). In the report, Arbour classifies Sudan as one of the International Crisis Group's "top 10" in the list of global threats for this year.

The report said in addition to the ten most troubled spots which pose a threat to security, there are three countries in which a breakthrough is expected; Colombia, the Philippines and Myanmar.

According to the report, the hotspots which present a challenge to the security of people across the globe are to be found in Sudan - Turkey - Afghanistan - Pakistan - Sahel countries (Mali, Nigeria, and beyond) - Democratic Republic of Congo - Kenya - Syria and Lebanon - Central Asia and Iraq.

Despite the fact that the report mentions that the list is non-prioritized, yet Sudan was the first reported (cited) case of conflicts that threaten global security.

The writer points out that, the "Sudan Problem", unsurprisingly, did not go away with South Sudan's secession in 2011. He says that civil war in Sudan, driven by concentration of power and resources in the hands of a fractional elite, continues to plague the country, and threatens to lead to further disintegration.

The report notes that the divisions within the ruling National Congress Party (NCP), growing popular unrest, and the steady national economic meltdown could send the country off the rails.

The report paints a very bleak picture for the country's present; saying that the situation in Sudan in the last ten years, if not worse, has definitely not improved.

“Sadly, 10 years ago, the situation was almost identical -- only then Khartoum was fighting against the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), representing the entire South, whereas now government coffers are drained by ongoing fighting against the Sudan Revolutionary Front, an alliance of major rebel groups from Darfur, South Kordofan, and Blue Nile states” the report says, further stating that, “The victims, as always, are the civilians caught in the middle. As it did in the South, the government has sought to use access to humanitarian aid as a bargaining chip, essentially using mass starvation as part of its military strategy”.

The writer, however, concludes that the only means for a lasting solution should involve a comprehensive approach; calling on the NCP to bring all the Sudanese political forces and rebel groups to the negotiation table, and on the international community to provide economic and political incentives.

 “The only lasting solution is a comprehensive one, bringing all of Sudan's stakeholders together to reform how power is wielded in a large and diverse country. Over the long term, the status quo -- incessant warfare, millions displaced, billions spent on aid -- is intolerable for all parties. If it is to be resolved for good, the NCP and international players will need to offer much more than at any time in the past -- the former a process of genuine all-inclusive dialogue, the latter economic and political incentives”. The report says.

It is worth mentioning that Sudan has recently placed at the top of most worst-lists of countries with poor conditions and in the tail-end of progress classifications; 48^th out of 53 African countries by the Mo Ibrahim Foundation annualindex of African governance, 12^th at the level of North African countries in quality of governance and 51^st in the continent in terms of national security and welfare.

It was also ranked 170 out of 179 in a global press freedom index compiled by mediawatchdog, Reporters Without Borders.