Sudan × S.Sudan = The no-win situation!

It is really a no-win situation because the path Sudan and South Sudan are presently treading would inevitably lead them to disastrous war. Whatever the outcome of this war, both countries would be in the "lose-lose" situation.

How did we get here and the impact we will soon experience in every facet of our lives? What will the end result of our economic, political and security situation look like!?

If we go back to 2005 when the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) was signed by the two ruling parties of the two countries now, The National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People’ liberation Movement (SPLM), we will find that the main objective of the peace agreement, as can be inferred from its name, was to end more than two decades of civil war and to achieve peace, security and development and economic stability for the country even the CPA leads to secession of the South.

What happened then was that the two partners of the CPA, NCP and SPLM failed to keep the country united. In fact it was not that only. All signs and indicators now portend a grim picture for the future of the both countries. And it seems that the outcome of the CPA was only the loss of that part of the country while the war broke out again and this time it is going to be worse because it is now taking place between two fully-equipped armies of two independent countries that would definitely lead to a full-scale war according to the experts.  

The occupation of Heglig was unwarranted and a very big mistake made by the South Sudan, where Heglig area is not one of the areas contested between the two countries. According to the 1956 borderline, it lies within Sudan's territory in addition to the fact that it was also allocated to Sudan as part of the 2008 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) on redrawing the boundaries of the disputed territory of Abyei.

Although the Sudanese armed force are undoubtedly capable of re-taking Heglig area by force, we really hope that the government of the South would return to its sense and withdraw its forces voluntarily so as to make possible return to the negotiations table for resolving the other pending issues because the military actions would not resolve such crisis and the only way to do so is to reach political solutions.

In order to reach political solutions, the two sides should admit the impact of the oil crisis on the economy of both countries, and then provide significant political concessions, South Sudan should recant its decision of shutting down oil production, and the government of Sudan should also reconsider its position regarding the oil revenues and the oil transit fees.

By reaching solutions to this issue, they can reach solutions to the other outstanding issues such as the territorial and border issues, as well as issues of equity in terms of resources, otherwise both side will remain in the "lose-lose" situation!.