Can the current volatile situation be contained?

As long as internal conflicts are ongoing in Sudan and South Sudan, the danger of the two countries sliding into war remains a very real possibility. South Sudan is facing armed tribal opposition, while Sudan is grappling with armed opposition in Blue Nile and South Kordofan states, not to mention Darfur. Naturally, internal struggles in the two countries are bound to reflect on the intensity of potential confrontations. 

This current situation represents fertile ground for mutual intervention and paves the way for each country to load the other with responsibility for intervention; and this is exactly what is happening. The state of South Sudan has been constantly accusing its neighbor of supporting and harboring rebels in its territory; on Sunday it accused the Sudanese government of scaling up deployment of additional troops and massive settlement of nomads from the Misseriya tribe in the Abyei area, allegedly to sabotage the forthcoming referendum in the region. Meanwhile, Sudan is complaining that the parent SPLM is still supporting armed opposition in Sudan and has not fully disengaged with the SPLM Northern Sector in what is now 'northern' Sudan. Sudan also accuses South Sudan of not committing to withdrawal of its troops from Sudan; by maintaining military presence in as many as six locations which should be demilitarized.  

As it stands, this situation cannot and will not be resolved if the two countries continue to adopt dual-route policies and accuse each other of unwillingness to reach agreement on key disputes. To begin with, each party should seek to settle its internal issues with armed opposition through dialogue in order to realize peace and stability at home. Secondly, each side should seek cooperation and good-neighborliness away from meddling and intervention in internal affairs.

Obviously, this will be difficult to achieve under the current tense atmosphere in which trust seems to have been all but lost in the midst of conspiracy theories. All signed agreements and declarations have clearly failed to tear down this barrier of mistrust, as a natural consequence of ignoring measures for rebuilding trust.

All told, we see that the only way out of this crisis lies in speedy, regional action to contain the volatile situation.  Indignant reaction will not resolve this crisis whose gravity is on the rise on a daily basis. A different approach on an entirely new basis seems to be in order.