Heglig … The time bomb for impending war

The international community is still expecting the government of South Sudan to reconsider its position and withdraws its forces from the Sudanese oil area of Heglig which  it occupied last week, despite the fact that Heglig area is not one of the areas contested between  Sudan and South Sudan as it was allocated to Sudan as part of a 2008 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) on redrawing the boundaries of the disputed territory of Abyei.

In the meantime many observers have warned of the nature of the risks that could result from the unwarranted attack by the South Sudanese forces on the Sudanese territories,  stating that it may lead to "disastrous" war especially after the Sudanese troops have reached the outskirts of Heglig.

 Some other observers believe that the battle would be more violent if the government of South Sudan insisted on its position, pointing out that the battles would be conducted around the Sudanese oilfields in Heglig and the potential damage to these oilfields which are very important to Sudan. They pointed out that, “and if that happened, then the oilfields of the South would not be out of the reach of the Sudanese army, and then, the scenario of dangerous collateral damage would include the oilfields infrastructures of both countries”.

The editor-in-chief of Alayam newspaper and veteran writer, Mahjoub Mohammed Salih wrote in his daily column yesterday that the battles are taking place in the most important oil region for the two countries. If the battles continue, they will definitely inflict harm on oil installations in both countries because Heglig oilfield is in the hands of the southern forces now. Salih added “and if battles take place around it, they would result in targeting it and may be devastating it. The southern oilfields will not be out of reach of the Sudanese air force. If this happens, it will not be only a war of depletion but the battles will also turn into mutual suicide”.

Reasons behind the attack

Well-informed diplomatic sources did not overrule that the plan of the SPLM-A attack on Sudanese territories, especially oil production areas in Heglig in South Kordofan was planned long before the attack.

The sources pointed out that Heglig area was not one of the disputed areas in the past period, adding that the plan aimed to seize Sudanese oil areas in order to barter it with other areas and files. This explains the reason why the Southern Sudan negotiation team has raised the issue of Heglig in the last round of talks in Addis Ababa.

 
“The plan targeted full occupation of Heglig by the SPLM forces and shutdown of oil productions so that the Sudanese side is under the pressures of occupation and stops of oil production” he added.

The source pointed out that the plan stipulates that the occupation of Heglig and the shutdown of oil production will make the government offer quick concessions or, in case of continuity of the battles, push the Security Council to send peacekeeping forces to the area.

“Despite the fact that Heglig area is not one of the areas of dispute between Sudan and South Sudan, the government of the South has tried to implement this dangerous plan to stop oil production in a bid to force Sudan to accept what they want,” the source added pointing out that Heglig is vital because it accounts for about half of Sudan's 115,000 barrel-a-day oil output.

Unjustified attack

South Sudan has offered to leave the oil field on the border with Sudan if peacekeepers were deployed there, claiming that it wanted guarantees that the Heglig field would not be used as a base for cross-border attacks, while Sudan is very unlikely to agree to the deployment of an outside force.

The UN Security Council has demanded the withdrawal of South Sudanese troops from Heglig.

It also demanded an end to bombing of South Sudanese territory by Sudan's air force, saying there should be an immediate and unconditional end to fighting on Sudan's southern border. The African Union Peace and Security Council has also described the occupation of Heglig as "illegal and unacceptable", and also condemned Sudan for carrying out aerial bombardments of South Sudan.  However Sudan denied launching air strikes.

Meanwhile, others observers see that the occupation of Heglig by SPLA was a wrong decision whatever its justifications.

Salih concluded that the only way out of the crisis lies in the Government of the South withdrawing voluntarily from the areas it occupied. “And if it refused to do that, it will find itself totally isolated from the international community that received it in the previous year with jubilation”. He said adding that “The initial reactions called on it to withdraw and that call was repeated at the international and regional levels.”

The AU hastened to ask the Government of the South to end the occupation which it admitted openly, provided that the withdrawal is accompanied by activation of the non-aggression pact, exercise of self-restraint and immediate return to the talks.

  

Observers believe that the occupation of Heglig represent a declaration of an all-out war as a result of occupying the land of others by force, saying that although the fighting of the last few days has so far been confined to a limited area, But it has dramatically increased the chances of a return to all-out war.